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For the consistently successful/profitable traders.
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I know we see high success rates (in the 90%) being boasted in the forex (or even futures) space a lot but I think that mostly unrealistic although I could be wrong. I would like a few professional traders with several years of profitability under their belts to chime in and
- Let me know what I could improve based on the analysis of my trading style shown in the screenshot.
- Is it realistic to be a profitable trader with a less than 45% success rate? Do any of you have a low success rate but are consistently profitable at the end of a month, quarter etc?
Top Comment: Yes traders are profitable with less than a 50% accuracy. As long as they have positive r/r . There are charts available that show what percentage win rate is required at specific R/R values.
Is a 1 to 1 Risk to Reward 66% Winrate good?
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I have a strategy that I have tested so far and it wins about 2/3 of the time. 1 to 1 risk to reward. I have tried to push it to 70-80% but it seems from my backtest it can only reach that % in the short term and long term it always falls below 70%.
Top Comment: If we look at expectancy (this is what will help us determine if it's "good" or "bad"), which is the average amount you can expect to earn or lose per trade, we can calculate it using your win rate, risk to reward, and trading costs. Here’s how it turns out with a commission of $5 and wins and losses of $100 (you can play around with different scenarios on expectancy calculators like this one ): Win Rate: 66.7% (2/3 of the time) Loss Rate: 33.3% (1/3 of the time) Average Win: $100 minus a $5 commission = $95 Average Loss: $100 plus a $5 commission = $105 Using the expectancy formula: Expectancy = (Win Rate * Average Win) - (Loss Rate * Average Loss) Expectancy = (0.667 * $95) - (0.333 * $105) Expectancy = $63.365 - $34.965 = $28.40 Your average profit per trade, after accounting for commissions, is $28.40. It shows a positive expectancy, which is definitely a good sign. To address your question about whether a 1 to 1 risk to reward ratio with a 66% win rate is good: Yes, it is considered effective in this scenario because the positive expectancy confirms that the strategy is profitable over time. However, the real deciding factor on whether to take this strategy live should be based on your comfort with potential volatility and drawdowns. A 1 to 1 risk to reward might not yield huge wins per trade, but it maintains profitability with a solid win rate. You need to make sure it aligns with your goals and risk tolerance before implementation.
My 70% win rate strategy
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Recently there has been a ton of people claiming that imbalance and liquidity are the go to when trading and treating it like the holy grain. And although knowing what they are is crucial, I personally do not think it is in any way good for the long term.
I want to share my own strategy, I'll explain it to my best ability.
I use a lot of confluences when it comes to trading. It varies from renko charts, smart money concept (order block, fvg, liquidity, etc), ema's and sma's, RSI, Daily bias, Fibonacci retracements, Equilibrium, News, SMT divergence, wave trends, Support and Resistance, and William fractals (for my Fibonacci retracements at 5 time period.
So how do I manage to put them all together?
Well it varies depending on the markets structure. I will give you examples of how I use them, like how I did yesterday. I only have 2 screenshots of trades I won using some of these confluences. But if y'all are interested I will happily keep track of upcoming winning trades and take screenshots of the moment to explain them.
USTEC/US100For example: The market opened per usual to a reversal from the low it created prior. I took the screenshot at 4H to show it in a more attractive way, but I usually enter trades at 15-30m time frames. I then use the 4H to draw out the Fibonacci retracements, and the 1H to track the SMAS-EMAS. The the crossing white lines are 5,8 day sma, meanwhile the red and orange lines are 13-20 day sma. Most of the time once the 5,8 sma cross below the 13-20 sma, it indicates a reversal will occur, and vise versa for bearish.
I drew the Fibonacci from the highs swings to the low swings on the 4H (Fractals can track it). With that, we can also see a bearish breaker block (dark purple) in the 50% retracement level. Not only that but we can see the dark purple line (50 day ema) cross the level and the breaker block. I then entered on that level, because of these confluences and also the fact that market usually opens a bit higher and 30 minutes in, it tends to reverse if we ended on a strong trend the day prior, which we did.
RSI the chart at the bottom also indicated the purple line crossing the yellow line for a down trend.
This trade gave me a 4:1 RR, marking my stop loss to the prior cross of the 5,8 sma, and stop loss right above the 50 ema and bearish breaker block.
XAUUSD/GOLD SPOTHere we see the same thing with the XAUUSD. Same exact confluences. This time i put my take profit around the 200 EMA (The blue thick lines) which in most cases act as either support or resistance. The gold created a double top to the 50% retracement as well, which indicated a strong resistance level.
This gave me a good 4.2:1 RR.
Other confluences are the imbalance and the bearish FVG that was created, which i put my stop loss above.
If you're confused please let me know to explain further.
Thank You.
Top Comment: Good luck to you but if you ask me the more things you have on the chart the less I trust what you say will happen in the future. People think they see all kinds of patterns in charts. Delusions! You give them a chart made of random data and they'll draw a bunch of trend lines and patterns. None of it means anything. You don't know the future and neither does anyone else.
I absolutely 100% ignore the concept of a win rate
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There is absolutely no such thing as a win rate. Not from a practical stand point like they want us to think.
First off it takes an enormous amount of data to even know if a strategy is viable
Minimum of 100 trades But id put that number at 1000 to be safe. That's how many trades it takes just to know if you have an edge.
In every single trade you can only like I said assume it's gonna work or not. The market doesn't have a 60% or 40% win rate for your trade.
Each trade is a to its own. There is absolutely no way to ever know if a trade will work. You only have historical data. Your win rate even if it is high means nothing to your next trade. You can even encounter a stretch of loosing trades. Sure there maybe an average if you keep your data. That's fine to keep track of your trades.
But the point being the win rate by itself is useless all that matters is you have more winning trades versus loosing trades in $ dollar amount. The market doesn't care about win rate and no trader truly knows their win rate on in hindsight. You can look back and say 55%. But that means nothing moving forward. It's the wrong thing to focus on you can have a 99% win rate and still be a loosing trader. Why? Cause you can have 99 trades loosing $10 and 1 trade loosing $1000.
All that matters is you control the $ amount losses
Trading is very much like boxing it's a defensive art. Don't get punched in the mouth put up your hands maintain defense at all times.
Focus on keep every single loss consistent is the absolute key
Never for example to beyond $100 IDC how good you think your % gains are or if you think the set up is.
This is just my thoughts I'm sick of seeing traders brag about win rate ...so what it's misleading.
Top Comment: You typed all of this out and after reading it the only thing I can think of is how this person doesn’t know the difference between lose and loose. Why do people on the internet struggle with these words so much?
What is your average win rate and RR?
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Just doing a bit of research. If you keep track of your win rate and risk:reward on trades what is your average? No strict time frame?
Top Comment: Been trading profitably for a couple years now. I have around a 40-50% win rate with an RR of anywhere from 1:2.5 to 1:5!
Experienced traders. What’s your win rate and RR
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As the title suggests
What’s your win rate ?
What’s your risk to reward?
What do you expect to make in a weeks of trading ? 1-2% per day is the levels I hear ?
Top Comment: Win rate is hard to define once you move beyond static R:R and leaving your trades to either hit SL or TP. Most experienced traders generally have more complex trade management strategies than inexperienced traders. Average R:R is easier to define though, even with more complex trade management, because you generally know the maximum amount you risked and what you made or lost at the end of each trade.
What would you guys say is a realistic win percentage?
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I was taking to this one daytrading influencer/mentor and he stated that he has a 93% win percentage which immediately made me think he was lying.
Top Comment: He is not necessarily lying. I personally know some people who have this win%, but they usually take profits prematurely and do not want to accept a losing trade. One losing trade could wipe out many days of profit. A combination of win% and R:R tells a better story. e.g. a strategy with (40%, 1:2) can ensure you stay profitable.
Rates of offers for trading/quant roles
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Does anyone have an estimate of the fraction of applicants that get offers from companies like 2 sigma, jane street, or hrt? I'm mostly just curious about the order of magnitude (10% vs. 1% vs. 0.1%) but haven't seen any numbers on how many applicants they get for trading/quant/algo developer roles
Top Comment: I've worked at funds without the same name recognition as the ones you listed and we were < 0.1%. I swear every math and cs major at a few universities applied. It's gotten crazy, I think mainly because of subreddits like this one and cscareerquestions. Keep in mind that most applications are pretty bad. So If you go to a good school and have had some good work experience then you will be considered.